What 2026 holds for African supply chains

As the new year gets underway, it is clear that supply chain uncertainty is not going anywhere.

While there has been no respite from geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics, the supply chain conversation is changing tone, says leading Southern African supply chain industry body SAPICS.

After years defined by disruption, firefighting and crisis response, the focus is shifting from survival to structure and from reaction to strategy. For African and South African supply chains in particular, SAPICS says this transition brings both challenges and opportunities.

International research, including the US-based Association for Supply Chain Management’s (ASCM’s) 2026 supply chain trends report, points to a future shaped by intelligent, resilient and data-driven operations. SAPICS notes that these themes take on distinct meaning on the African continent, where supply chains operate in environments marked by infrastructure constraints, energy instability, geopolitical complexity and deep socio-economic responsibility.

Moving from a state of “permacrisis”

Over the past five years, supply chain leaders have operated in what many describe as a state of “permacrisis”. Pandemic aftershocks, geopolitical conflict, climate events, port congestion, skills shortages and cost volatility forced organisations into constant defensive mode.

SAPICS believes that in 2026, this is changing. “Rather than reacting to each new shock, leading organisations are redesigning their supply chains to absorb disruption, adapt dynamically and create long-term value,” it notes. “This is where South African and African supply chain managers – who have long had to build resilience into daily operations – may have a head start.”

AI moves from experiment to essential

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been cited as a top supply chain trend for some time. In 2026 it sits at the centre of supply chain optimisation, moving from pilot projects to core infrastructure.

For African supply chains, AI-driven forecasting, demand sensing and scenario modelling are game changers that can help mitigate long-standing challenges such as unreliable data, volatile demand and constrained capacity, SAPICS explains.

“By synthesising real-time information from across the supply chain, including weather, ports, energy availability and market signals, AI enables faster and better-informed decisions,” it elaborates. “Crucially, this is not about replacing people. It is about augmenting human judgement in environments where complexity is high and margins for error are low.”

However, the industry body acknowledges that the growing focus on technologies such as AI does signal a supply chain workforce evolution in 2026.

Workforce evolution

“Automation and AI are taking over repetitive transactional tasks, freeing professionals to focus on strategy, analysis and decision-making. Supply chain managers must invest in new skills, including data literacy, systems thinking, scenario planning and cross-functional leadership,” SAPICS advises.

“In Africa, this transformation has a powerful social dimension. Building future-ready supply chains means developing local talent, creating sustainable jobs and ensuring that technological advancement supports inclusive growth.”

Geopolitics, regionalisation and “anywhere-but-China”

As global trade patterns shift, the familiar “China-plus-one” supply chain strategy is evolving into a broader “anywhere-but-China” approach, as organisations diversify sourcing and production to reduce risk. This is driving increased regionalisation and supply chain rewiring.

SAPICS says this trend presents a strategic opportunity for Africa. “As global companies seek alternative manufacturing and sourcing locations, African countries that invest in infrastructure, skills and policy certainty can position themselves as viable regional hubs. South Africa, with its established logistics capability and access to regional markets, has a critical role to play,” it explains.

“At the same time, supply chain managers must navigate increasing trade complexity, localisation requirements and geopolitical risk,” it continues. “Success will depend on network design, supplier diversification and strong regional partnerships.”

Climate, circularity and cost precision

Climate risk and circularity are moving rapidly up the supply chain agenda. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) expectations are increasingly influencing investment decisions, customer relationships and regulatory frameworks.

SAPICS emphasises that for African supply chains, climate resilience is not abstract. “Extreme weather events, water scarcity and energy instability already affect operations. In 2026, organisations that integrate sustainability into network design, sourcing and logistics will be better positioned to manage both risk and reputation. At the same time, cost optimisation is evolving. Rather than blunt cost cutting, leaders are adopting precision strategies that balance efficiency, resilience and sustainability,” it expands.

A defining year for African supply chains

With 2026 shaping up to be a defining year for supply chains globally – particularly for South Africa and the rest of the continent – SAPICS stresses the importance of education and knowledge-sharing for everyone involved in supply chain management.

“In today’s complex and rapidly evolving supply chain landscape, all supply chain roles must be filled by people with the requisite knowledge, skills and qualifications,” the organisation asserts.

Since its foundation in 1966, SAPICS has worked to elevate, educate and empower supply chain professionals in South Africa and across the continent. This is achieved through membership, events, education courses, workshops delivered by Authorised Education Providers and the annual SAPICS Conference – the leading event for the supply chain profession in Africa.

This year’s conference takes place in Cape Town from 19 to 22 July and is a milestone gathering, as it coincides with SAPICS’s 60^th anniversary.