Ready for take-off or stuck on the tarmac?

May 21, 2026

Air transport represents far more than passenger convenience. Its cargo operations are the arteries through which time-sensitive and high-value goods flow, yet, in South Africa, those arteries are strained by ageing infrastructure, geopolitical headwinds and digitalisation requirements. JULIA TEW explores what’s needed for the sector to soar.

Before Covid-19, South Africa’s airline industry was served by a sizeable mix of domestic and international operators across three main international hubs – Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban – and six main domestic airports. The pandemic, however, dealt a severe blow. The grounding and subsequent liquidation in June 2022 of Comair – which had accounted for 40% of domestic seat capacity before its financial distress – and the financial restructuring of South African Airways (SAA) meant a considerable reshuffleof the sector. Today, four main domestic carriers and 36 international operators serve the market, coordinating through the Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA) and the Board of Airline Representatives of South Africa (BARSA) respectively.

OR Tambo International Airport (ORT) in Johannesburg remains the dominant hub, accommodating 40 operators, while Cape Town International serves all four domestic carriers and 13 international operators. King Shaka International in Durban currently handles only three domestic carriers and four international operators, underscoring the concentration of the industry around Gauteng.

The cargo infrastructure challenge

If there is one message that emerges consistently from academic research into SA’s air cargo sector, it is that infrastructure is the bottleneck. A 2025 study published in the Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management surveyed 120 key stakeholders across the country’s major airports and found that infrastructure quality and technology adoption are the two most significant determinants of cargo delay. Critically, infrastructure exerts the stronger effect: a single-unit improvement in infrastructure quality corresponds to a reduction of around 3.34 minutes in cargo delay durations. Technology adoption, while important, follows with a 1.28-minute reduction per unit improvement.

The study paints a stark picture of the current state of affairs. SA’s major airports continue to operate with terminal facilities aged over 20 years, cold-chain storage capacities running at less than 50% of demand and cargo-handling processes still reliant on manual data entry and siloed information systems. The sector lags significantly behind global best practices in the integration of digital tools such as electronic Air Waybills (e-AWB), real-time shipment tracking and automated warehouse management systems.

What’s more, policy attention and funding have
historically favoured passenger terminal expansions over cargo-specific upgrades. Cold-chain infrastructure – essential for SA’s pharmaceutical and fresh produce exports – remains critically underdeveloped, while automation technologies such as robotic sorting systems and digital customs interfaces are either absent or inconsistently implemented across airports. The governance dimension is equally problematic. Airport authorities, regulatory agencies and private stakeholders have not always aligned their planning priorities, creating what the researchers describe as a strategic misalignment that results in chokepoints even at otherwise functional terminals.

ACSA’s R21.7-billion response

The good news is that SA’s airport infrastructure deficit is finally attracting appropriate investment. The Airports Company South Africa (ACSA) has embarked on an ambitious R21.7-billion infrastructure development programme, the largest capital investment since the airports were upgraded ahead of the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

The flagship cargo project is a new R5-billion Midfield Cargo Terminal at ORT, which received regulatory approval in 2024. This terminal will dramatically expand handling capacity from the current 450,000 tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes/year by 2033. In parallel, the Department of
Transport has committed to introducing the e-AWB within the SA air cargo industry to enhance efficiency and competitiveness.

ACSA’s group manager for Traffic Development, Mpho Rambau, has framed these investments within a continental strategy. As Africa’s trade flows reshape under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – a market valued at US$3.4 trillion – SA is positioning ORT as the continent’s leading air cargo hub. Rambau emphasises, however, that infrastructure alone is not sufficient, arguing that African airport operators must also modernise customs procedures, integrate digital clearance systems, expand cold-chain logistics and build e-commerce-friendly freight infrastructure.

Beyond cargo, the broader infrastructure programme includes upgrades to terminal facilities, passenger loading bridges, uninterrupted power supply systems (critical given SA’s energy challenges), instrument landing systems and fire safety infrastructure across ACSA’s nine airports. Cape Town International Airport, the passenger volumes of which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by 112%, is also receiving a reconfiguration and expansion of its domestic arrivals terminal.

4IR technologies: promise vs reality

The adoption of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies was already shaping aviation before the pandemic; Covid simply accelerated the pace. A 2023 policy research brief from the SA Research Chair in Industrial Development (SARChI) at the University of Johannesburg – drawing on interviews with 11 international and domestic airline players as well as the public infrastructure provider – found that all operators acknowledged the significant potential of 4IR technologies, viewing increased digitalisation as essential to both travelling experience and ground-handling efficiency.

Technologies identified as having high transformative potential for the sector include the growing use of biometrics, e-gates and face-recognition systems at immigration; the increasing automation of check-in and bag-drop via sophisticated self-service kiosks; big data analytics for passenger profiling and service personalisation; driverless vehicles in airport operations; the digitalisation and automation of cargo operations, including 3D scanners, for optimising cargo loads; AI for predictive flight operations management; and Departure Control System (DCS) platforms providing real-time, integrated solutions.

While most companies were aware of these technologies and had observed them in international hubs such as Amsterdam Schiphol, the researchers found that local operators mostly viewed them as aspirational rather than immediately achievable. The primary constraint was not willingness to invest but the existing airport infrastructure’s inability to accommodate these technologies – a conclusion that reinforces the centrality of ACSA’s infrastructure programme.

Skills shortages compound the challenge. Although the sector has reasonable overall digital proficiency, highly specialised roles – aviation engineers, supply chain managers and advanced data analysts – remain scarce. The researchers call for tight collaboration between the industry, SETAs and the Department of Higher Education and Training to ensure an adequate pipeline of skills.

Further structural constraints include fragmented data integration between airport authorities and the Department of Home Affairs on immigration, as well as uncertainty around the Protection of Personal Information (POPI) Act, which limits the data-sharing arrangements that advanced passenger profiling systems require.

Global cargo trends worth tracking

To understand where SA needs to go, it can be useful to look at where the global industry is heading. The “2025 Vision for the Future of Air Cargo Facilities” white paper by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) offers a potential roadmap. The air cargo industry saw 18 consecutive months of growth – with global cargo tonne-kilometres rising 3.2% year-on-year – as of January 2025. IATA forecast that air cargo volumes would increase by 5.8% in 2025, reaching 72.5 million tonnes, with e-commerce – projected to grow at 14% annually through 2026 – the primary driver. Long-term forecasts projected average annual growth of 3.1% through to 2043.

Those projections, however, were made before two significant headwinds materialised. The US-Israeli war on Iran has had a measurable impact on global cargo flows. Major regional hubs such as Dubai International Airport and Hamad International Airport have experienced varying levels of operational disruption, including flight cancellations, diversions and schedule adjustments.

According to new analysis by WorldACD Market Data, approximately 21% of worldwide air cargo flows are directly linked to the Middle East (when measured by weight) between November 2025 and January 2026, underlining the strategic importance of the region’s aviation network. For air cargo, the conflict has resulted in rerouted flights avoiding restricted airspace, increased transit times on Asia-Europe and Asia-Middle East corridors, reduced belly-hold capacity due to passenger flight suspensions, higher charter demand, and upward pressure on freight rates and war-risk surcharges.

Reuters reports that air freight rates have risen by as much as 70% on some routes since the start of the war in the Middle East, as the conflict limits flights, blocks some ‌ocean shipments and pushes up jet fuel costs. The stranding of more than 100 container ships in the area around the critical Strait of Hormuz oil export corridor has impacted cargo rates on routes between South Asia and Europe in particular.

Compounding this, the introduction of sweeping US tariffs and the rollback of the de minimis exemption on low-value imports dealt a direct blow to the e-commerce air freight volumes that had been expected to drive growth. By mid-2025, IATA had revised its full-year volume growth forecast down to just 0.7%, and its December 2025 outlook projected 2026 cargo volumes at 71.6 million tonnes – below the original 2025 target. The long-term growth trajectory remains intact, but the near-term picture is considerably more volatile than the January forecasts suggested.

Despite these significant setbacks, IATA’s vision of the cargo facility of the future remains one that is safe, secure, sustainable, automated, connected and smart – enabling seamless data exchange, end-to-end visibility and AI-driven operational optimisation. Technologies highlighted include autonomous ground support systems, real-time tracking infrastructure and electrification of ground operations.

Aviation Week Network identifies a cluster of key technology trends reshaping global air cargo: IoT sensors monitoring real-time cargo conditions (critical for pharmaceutical cold chains); blockchain for supply chain transparency; e-AWBs replacing paper documentation; cargo drones for last-mile delivery and remote-area access; electric aircraft for short-haul freight; AI for route optimisation and demand forecasting; and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) to reduce emissions.

Sustainability: the unavoidable agenda

Environmental sustainability is increasingly non-negotiable for the airline industry. The SARChI researchers note that the level of competitiveness of individual companies and national industries will be determined largely by how green their future transformations are. Smart technological development can contribute through fuel efficiency gains, emissions reduction, waste management improvements and the wider use of clean energy.

Globally, the shift toward SAFs is accelerating. These fuels reduce fleet carbon footprints without requiring significant aircraft modifications, and next-generation fuel-efficient aircraft – such as the Boeing 777F and Airbus A350F – are becoming the standard for serious cargo operators. For SA, the transition to more efficient fleets is particularly important. ACSA has committed to deploying renewable energy solutions and aligning with the country’s Just Energy Transition as part of its infrastructure upgrade programme – a recognition that green airport operations are not merely an ethical obligation, but a competitive necessity.

Preparing for lift-off

SA’s air transport sector stands at an inflection point. The investments being made in infrastructure are necessary and welcome – but the empirical research is clear. Infrastructure investment alone – without simultaneous advances in digital integration, skills development, institutional coordination and sustainability strategy – will deliver only marginal gains.

The global industry is moving fast. E-commerce volumes are surging, autonomous cargo systems are being deployed and the competitive advantage will accrue to the airports and airlines that can offer speed, visibility, reliability and sustainability in their logistics chains. SA has the geographic position, the economic ambition and the financial commitment to be a genuinely competitive African air cargo hub. This ambition must be pursued against a backdrop of genuine global uncertainty: geopolitical conflict, shifting trade policy and near-term cargo volume volatility all serve as reminders that the competitive landscape can change rapidly.

Whether this potential is realised will depend on whether government, regulators, airlines and ACSA can overcome the institutional fragmentation and skills constraints that have historically held the sector back. The runway is there. The question is whether all the right systems are in place to lift off.