Are there enough raw materials to cover e-mobility requirements?
Are there enough raw materials to cover e-mobility requirements?
All over the world, truck manufacturers are starting to produce electric vehicles. Electromobility, however, requires a wide variety of specific metals and rare earths, some of which are only available in limited quantities and in certain parts of the world. So, are there actually enough accessible raw materials out there to facilitate the move to e-mobility?
The most important raw material when it comes to e-mobility shimmers in silver, white, and grey: lithium, an alkali metal. Its ancient Greek name is rather mundanely translated into English as “stone”. But, without this stone, a modern electric vehicle wouldn’t even be able to move. This is because its excellent electrochemical properties are what make rechargeable batteries with a high energy density possible in the first place.
“A typical electric vehicle contains around eight or nine kilograms of lithium in various cathode material compositions,” explains Dr Matthias Buchert, head of the Resources and Mobility division at the independent research institute Öko-Institut e.V.
Buchert advises many, including the directorates-general of the European Union (EU). As he explains, the lithium-ion battery is at the heart of the modern electric drive concept, and this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
However, lithium is not the only important raw material for electromobility. Copper, for example, is also in high demand for electric vehicles due to its excellent electrical conductive properties. At around 70 kg per vehicle, approximately three times as much copper is required for an electric vehicle compared to a vehicle with a combustion engine. Cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and other rare earths are also used in electric drive technologies. The question is, where do all these raw materials come from, and do we have enough of them to effect the drive toward e-mobility?
There is only enough cobalt left for 11 years
“As far as we are currently aware, there are no reserves (of lithium) in Europe that would be sufficient,” says Dr Karl Lichtblau, managing director of the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft, which regularly carries out studies on this topic for companies and political bodies. The largest lithium reserve we know about, comprising around nine million tonnes, is located in Chile, followed by reserves in Australia, Argentina, and China.
Provided the supply chain functioned well, there would be enough lithium in the world to enable a global transition in drivetrains, but it is another raw material he is worried about: cobalt.
“With global consumption as it is at present, cobalt reserves will only last for around 11 years. Around half of the known reserves are in the Congo, where it is mined in conditions that are sometimes problematic with regard to human rights,” says Lichtblau. The heavy metal has been important in many industrial applications for a long time, such as the hardening of metals and the manufacturing of magnets. Vehicles with combustion engines generally only contain a few grams of cobalt. By contrast, electric vehicles contain quantities in the two-figure kilogram range, as cobalt is an important component of lithium-ion batteries: it ensures a particularly high energy density, high ranges, quick charging times, and smaller batteries.
Researchers are working on raw material-optimised batteries
As Lichtblau states, the increasing importance of e-mobility means that the demand for cobalt is also increasing. As a result, the seven million tonnes of reserves that we know about could even be exhausted in less than 11 years. He adds: “We are currently realising that electric drive concepts using lithium-ion batteries are increasingly being tested in the lorry segment too. This is a new development, as previously all focus has been on hydrogen.”
Does this mean the shortage of cobalt will become a problem for e-mobility? Öko-Institut expert Buchert gives the partial all-clear: “The specific cobalt content of the cathode material in lithium-ion batteries that dominates the European automotive market (lithium-ion-manganese-cobalt-oxide) has already been significantly reduced,” he says. He adds that research is being carried out into further reducing the proportion of cobalt and even on energy storage systems that do not use cobalt, such as a new generation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, explaining: “The energy density of these batteries is somewhat lower. However, we assume that in the small car segment, there will be lower demands with regard to the mileage capability of electric vehicles.”
Recycling could cover half the raw material demand
Is it just research and development that can help us counter the scarcity of raw materials? “No, it is obvious that we need a comprehensive battery recycling programme,” stipulates Buchert. He hopes that the EU will soon introduce a new battery directive that will be applicable in all 27 member states.
“We know that many European countries have already made an industrial policy decision that takes into account the importance of production, research, and raw material recycling when it comes to batteries. We are also currently experiencing an upswing in battery recycling plants,” says Buchert. Belgian metallurgy group Umicore, for example, wants to build the world’s biggest battery recycling plant in Europe by 2026, at an estimated cost of €500 million (roughly R9.4 billion). This corresponds to an annual capacity of 150 000 tonnes. By way of comparison, today’s large plants can cope with just 12 000 tonnes.
But what percentage of raw materials could be covered by recycling in the best-case scenario? Buchert answers: “The recycling effect will be somewhat delayed. In the first few years, it will be just a few percent, because the batteries will remain in vehicles for a long time and then might have a second life in stationary battery storage systems. But after 2035, the proportion of coverage could exceed one tenth, and at some point recycling will provide half of the required raw materials for e-mobility from domestic production alone – so from existing electric vehicles on our roads.”
The Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft’s Lichtblau emphasises the importance of the efficient recycling of raw materials in batteries, but also adds: “Recycling must be incorporated from the very beginning; it starts with the design and manufacture of batteries and drive components, so as to ensure that the raw materials can be extracted again as easily as possible. At the moment, this is still not a profitable endeavour for companies.”
Raw material availability also dependent on geopolitics
However, recycling and research alone will not be enough, says Lichtblau: “Clever geopolitics and diplomacy are key if we are to effect the drive turnaround within the set timeframe.”
What he means by this is what we recently saw happen with nickel, a silver-coloured metal, which – just like cobalt – is required for the cathodes (negative poles) of batteries. Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine in contravention of international law, the price of nickel skyrocketed in a short space of time; the London Metal Exchange even had to suspend trading for a while. This is because Russia is one of the biggest exporters of nickel in the world.
Concern about supply bottlenecks due to Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions was high. “We will have an even bigger problem on our hands if there is a geopolitical conflict between the West and China. If that turns out to be the case, I have my doubts whether a drive turnaround in Europe could happen in the planned timeframe,” warns Lichtblau.
After all, according to data from the German Raw Materials Agency, China is the EU’s most important raw material supplier of metals and ores, ahead of even Russia. Rare earths such as neodymium and dysprosium are particularly important for electromobility. China dominates globally here in terms of both reserves and processing. One figure from the European Raw Materials Alliance makes the dependence on China abundantly clear: although the EU is a globally leading manufacturer of electric engines, it imports 90% of the rare earth-based permanent magnets required for these engines from China. “If the Chinese government were to strategically deploy its dominant position in respect of raw materials to achieve political goals, that would lead to bottlenecks in Europe,” says Lichtblau.
Raw materials from space?
In the end, Europe’s ability to influence geopolitical developments is limited. Even the most robust research efforts cannot guarantee that we can find the perfect technology for sufficiently available raw materials. It is therefore all the more important that we have an effective recycling programme for electromobility, so that the e-mobility rollout can be a success.
But what about the plans we’re always reading about in the media: to mine rare raw materials in space (on asteroids, for example)? Raw material experts share the same opinion on this: “A few years ago we had the same discussion about mining rare earths from the depths of the sea,” remembers Buchert. “Nothing came of it because the cost and effort required were completely out of proportion with the benefits.”
“The seabed is still a more likely contender than space,” expands Lichtblau, adding: “Even if it were technically possible at some point, there would be no economic sense in it. It would be a lot better to efficiently use and recycle the raw materials we have on our planet.”
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