ACEA warns truck fines could kill jobs and competitiveness

European truck manufacturers – contending with unattainable 2030 CO₂ reduction targets – face €1 billion in fines, hundreds of thousands of job losses, and even bankruptcy. WILL SHIERS reports from Brussels. 

Hundreds of thousands of European jobs are at risk unless urgent action is taken to address the commercial vehicle (CV) industry’s inability to meet 2030 CO₂ reduction targets, according to Christian Levin, CEO of Traton Group and current chairperson of ACEA’s Commercial Vehicle Board.

Speaking in Brussels, Levin warned that Europe’s truck manufacturers “simply cannot carry” the billions of euros in fines they face if targets are missed, and that the consequences would ripple far beyond the factories. “We are the bloodstream of society. Transport is the reason Europe is so efficient. If we lose our competitiveness as an industry, we will lose the jobs, the logistics capability, and the position we currently hold as global market leaders,” he said.

Under current legislation, truck manufacturers must reduce fleet-average CO₂ emissions by 45% compared with 2020 levels by the end of this decade. Miss the target, and they face a penalty of €4,250 per gram of CO₂ per vehicle, with fines potentially reaching €1 billion per OEM. “If we miss it by 10%, that’s where we end up,” Levin warned. “Not because we didn’t do our bit – the vehicles are ready, but if the other pieces don’t fall into place, we fail.”

Levin outlined four critical conditions that must all be met if the sector is to succeed: the trucks, the infrastructure, the business case, and the demand.

On trucks, the message is clear: European OEMs have delivered. Every major manufacturer now offers battery-electric heavy trucks for sale, and production capacity is in place. “We can guarantee that we deliver vehicles,” said Levin. “You place an order; you get a truck.”

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales currently account for just 3.5% of the EU heavy truck market – a figure that must rise tenfold by 2030. Not all of the 45% target is expected to come from electrification: around 10% will be delivered through improvements in drivelines and aerodynamics. But that still leaves BEVs needing to make up the remaining 35% within just four-and-a-half years.

Some EU markets, such as Sweden and the Netherlands, are leading the way – but others, such as Poland and Spain, remain far behind. “This isn’t a technology problem anymore,” said Levin. “It’s everything else.”

The second hurdle is infrastructure: there are fewer than 1,000 locations in the EU where a heavy CV can be charged, and most of those are not equipped with the megawatt chargers required by long-haul operators.

The real bottleneck, however, is grid connection. “Even in my home country of Sweden, it can take 10 years to put a cable in the ground,” said Levin. “This isn’t just about building chargers – it’s about getting power to them, and the permitting process is completely broken.”

For operators, switching to electric only makes sense if the business case stacks up; today, it often doesn’t. “The diesel engine is still cheaper to run in most use cases,” Levin admitted. “We need to change that.” Solutions, he suggested, include a mix of carbon pricing, toll reform, tax breaks, and new financing models. “It’s absurd that fossil fuels are taxed less than electricity in Europe,” he stressed. “We need to make it more expensive to emit.”

Even with the right vehicles, the right infrastructure, and the right total cost of ownership (TCO), fleet operators still need confidence that customers will pay, and keep paying, for low-carbon transport. “No-one buys a truck for fun,” Levin noted. “It’s an investment, and if your contract only lasts a year or two, how do you justify buying a €300,000 truck?”

Longer-term contracts, clearer signals from government, and strong commitments from public and corporate buyers will all be needed. “Public procurement should demand zero-emission transport,” he said. “We have the supply. Let’s create the demand.”

Despite the urgency, Levin expressed frustration at the lack of dialogue with the European Commission: “We are not passenger cars. It’s a completely different business model, and right now, we’re being left out of the conversation.”

ACEA is now sending a formal letter to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen requesting urgent talks and an early review of the 2030 target. “We [European truck makers] fully support the goal,” said Levin. “But without action on infrastructure, TCO, and demand, we won’t get there and the fines will do real damage.”

Levin believes Europe needs to take a tougher stance on legacy truck technology if it wants to meet its climate goals. “From Euro 1 all the way to Euro 6e, the industry and legislators worked together,” he noted. “We had clarity. When the new standard came in, the old one was banned. You couldn’t register Euro 5 when Euro 6 came in. Basically, you closed the window.”

He argued that the same principle should apply today, to encourage uptake of battery-electric trucks: “It must be the same with low or zero-tailpipe-emission vehicles. And that’s not the case in Europe, but that is the case in China.”

China, he noted, now has 30% electric truck penetration, driven by strong policy, swift regulation, and targeted incentives – a contrast to Europe’s patchwork approach and slower pace. “We need to do something drastic, otherwise it’s four-and-a-half years to 2030. How should we go from 3.5% to 35%? It will simply not happen if we don’t change anything,” he warned.

The targets – unpacked

Under current European Union regulations, truck manufacturers must reduce the average CO₂ emissions of their new heavy-duty vehicle fleets by 45% by 2030, compared to 2019–2020 levels. These targets are part of the EU’s broader strategy to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and are enforced through the Heavy-Duty Vehicle CO₂ Regulation.

Key points of the 2030 CO₂ reduction targets:

1. Baseline Year: The reduction is measured against the average emissions of trucks registered in 2019/2020, which is considered the baseline period.
2. Target Value: Manufacturers must reduce CO₂ emissions by 45% from that baseline by 2030. Earlier targets include a 15% reduction by 2025 (already in force), while future targets include 65% by 2035 and 90% by 2040, as recently proposed by the European Commission (subject to adoption).
3. Scope: The regulation primarily applies to heavy-duty vehicles such as rigid trucks, tractor units, and some vocational vehicles (like construction trucks). It excludes smaller vehicles and niche segments, although coverage is expanding.
4. Encouragement of Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs): There are incentives such as “supercredits” for selling battery-electric or hydrogen fuel-cell trucks, to help manufacturers lower their fleet average.

These targets are designed to push the trucking industry toward decarbonisation, but they also present significant logistical, economic, and technological challenges for OEMs and fleet operators alike.