Freight forwarders face disruption and digital change

The South African freight forwarding landscape in 2026 is being shaped by a collision of forces: a war that’s upended global air cargo, rising digital demands from SARS and a broader shift in what clients expect from their logistics partners, as JULIA TEW reports.

The attack on Iran by the US and Israel at the end of February 2026 sent immediate shockwaves through the global freight system, and South Africa felt them quickly. In the first full week of the conflict, global air freight traffic fell 4% from the previous week and was 12% lower than the same time last year. Africa recorded a 23% decline in chargeable weight – the second sharpest drop of any region globally. 

The reason is structural: Gulf-based carriers are not peripheral players in Africa’s air connectivity. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad together carry around 13% of global air cargo and handle a quarter of all China-Europe freight. Their effective grounding has pushed rates sharply higher across corridors well beyond the Gulf.

The cost of flying cargo spiked. Jet fuel prices nearly doubled in a single month, moving from US$99.40 per barrel on 27 February to US$195.16 per barrel by 27 March, according to a special update by the Southern African Association of Freight Forwarders (SAAFF). Given that fuel accounts for between 30 and 40% of total operating costs for cargo airlines, the pressure on margins – and ultimately on shipper costs – has been severe.

A survey of over 225 US-based members of the Airforwarders Association (AFA) found that nearly 70% were experiencing disruption, with 29% reporting a significant impact and 38% a moderate one. Rate volatility, flight cancellations, capacity constraints and longer transit times were among the most common issues.

The impact on South Africa’s own gateways has been uneven. According to the SAAFF and BUSA cargo movement report, international air cargo volumes in March 2026 were mixed: Johannesburg rebounded strongly, up 60% month on month and 7% year on year, while Cape Town fell 14% month on month and a sharp 52% year on year. Durban recorded the biggest contraction, down 67% month on month and 72% year on year. The net result was a 9% year-on-year decline in total international air cargo throughput compared with March 2025.

Some recovery is underway. According to the GCC Airspace Recovery Monitor, Emirates was operating at 68% of normal capacity as of late March, while Air Arabia was at roughly 54% and Etihad at around 49%. Qatar Airways has fared worse, with far lower flight recovery due to airspace restrictions and its heavy dependence on long-haul routes.

For freight markets, even with ceasefire discussions ongoing, the operating environment remains fragile. Analysts note that energy production in the Middle East is unlikely to fully resume quickly, meaning elevated fuel surcharges and cautious capacity deployment are likely to persist. Forwarders should not expect an immediate return to normality – and their clients need to plan accordingly.

The stakes for SA go beyond cargo volumes. Roughly 60% of the country’s petrol imports and 80% of its diesel imports came from the Middle East and the Gulf in 2025, according to CNBC Africa. A protracted conflict impacts freight rates but also feeds directly into fuel costs, transport costs and, ultimately, consumer prices.

For SA importers relying on air freight for time-sensitive cargo, the practical advice right now is to book early, expect surcharges and build transit-time buffers into planning cycles. Cape routing congestion is already tightening the ocean freight market. SAAFF warns that forwarders receiving voyage cancellations and surcharge notices from ocean lines should review their contractual position carefully with both shipping lines and customers, as well as check force majeure clauses. Cargo owners should note that war risks are excluded under clause 6 of the Institute Cargo Clauses A insurance conditions, meaning on-carriage expenses may not be covered. Being transparent with clients about surcharges, rather than introducing costs later, is critical. 

What was already changing before the war

Even before February’s escalation, 2026 was shaping up to be a pivotal year for freight forwarding globally. The war has added urgency to trends that were already well in motion.

Technology is no longer optional. AI in freight forwarding has moved past the proof-of-concept stage. The most impactful deployments include document processing – with AI-powered tools reducing manual data entry time by 70 to 90% – as well as rate intelligence, customer communication and exception prediction. The forwarders who benefit most from AI are those with clean, centralised data. A unified freight management platform is the prerequisite for meaningful AI adoption.

Consolidation is reshaping the competitive map. The DSV acquisition of DB Schenker, completed in 2025, creates the world’s largest freight forwarder by several measures. Enterprise customers who feel deprioritised during the merger integration are more open to alternatives, which presents a genuine opportunity for mid-size and specialist forwarders.

Visibility is now expected. Real-time visibility across supply chains has become the minimum expectation for supply chain performance. For SA operators, this is particularly relevant given the complexity of inland transport legs and the risks of demurrage and detention at busy ports like Durban and Cape Town. On a positive note, the International Container Terminal Services, Inc’s (ICTSI’s) operational takeover of Durban’s Gateway Terminal is showing early results. According to Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) port statistics quoted by SAAFF, overall container throughput at Durban is up 6.2% in the first quarter of 2026, with the Gateway Terminal slightly ahead at 6.6%, reflecting incremental gains in vessel productivity, berth fluidity and landside coordination. 

Getting customs right is critical

If there’s one area where local freight forwarders and their clients consistently underestimate the stakes, it’s customs compliance. SARS’ 2026 tariff schedule contains more than 8,600 tariff lines, all of which require careful classification when goods are imported. Getting classification wrong, even accidentally, carries real consequences. Incorrect HS codes can result in underpayment or overpayment of duties. SARS actively audits classifications and may issue penalties or retrospective assessments, sometimes months or years after the original importation. Documentation accuracy is equally important. Commercial invoices, packing lists, certificates of origin, permits and transport documents must align perfectly. Even minor inconsistencies like mismatched quantities or descriptions can delay clearance.

What is changing this year is the intensity of oversight. SARS continues to enhance its digital customs platforms, focusing on electronic submissions, data validation and automated risk profiling. While this improves efficiency, it also leaves less room for error. Recent system updates include new facility codes to enable electronic status messaging between customs and container depots. SARS also announced changes to the processing of e-commerce import declarations in late 2025, designed to prevent misuse of the simplified import process and support efficient processing at compliance centres.

For businesses importing regularly, the message from customs professionals is to not rely on supplier-provided tariff codes without having them independently verified, and to treat documentation preparation with the necessary seriousness. An experienced customs clearing partner does more than submit declarations: it advises on correct classification, identifies permit requirements, reduces inspection risk through accuracy and manages post-clearance queries.

The way ahead for SA forwarders

The SA freight and logistics market is seeing operators increasingly bundle customs brokerage, cargo insurance and ESG reporting to defend their value against pure-price competitors. Freight forwarding remains a critical orchestrator of cross-border movements, with value shifting toward data-rich trade compliance services.

There is also a longer-term infrastructure dimension the sector can’t ignore. SA’s ports and air cargo hubs have structural constraints that limit the country’s ability to capitalise on redirected trade flows – a missed opportunity that becomes more costly every time a global disruption increases vessel traffic around the Cape. A University of Johannesburg study of 120 stakeholders at major SA airports found that improved infrastructure and higher technology adoption can play a significant role in preventing cargo delays.

When air cargo hubs underperform, trade partners may shift to competing hubs such as Dubai or Nairobi. Nelson Teixeira, managing director of operations for sub-Saharan Africa at FedEx, explains: “We’ve seen first-hand how efficient air freight systems can enable local businesses to scale, open access to new markets and allow businesses to compete for global market share.”

Clients are no longer satisfied with shipment tracking links. Forwarders that shift from transactional vendor to strategic partner will be making arguably one of the most important moves that any local freight forwarder can make in 2026. This – together with an ongoing commitment to preparation, accurate compliance and proactive communication – will help build resilience in the sector, regardless of what the next global shock turns out to be.