What does 2023 hold for the bus and coach industry?

After nearly three decades of uncertainty and the last three years of extreme duress, could 2023 finally be the turning point for the bus and coach sector? BAZIL GOVENDER shares his New Year wish list of issues to navigate in order for the sector to succeed.

For this ‘Damascus moment’ (a sudden, radical change in attitude, perspective, or belief) to bring hope and relief to millions of sector users and stakeholders, many things will have to fall into place simultaneously and synchronously.

The primary requirement for things to start aligning is undoubtedly the ‘will’. This has to be a collective will – of government at all levels; of communities; of users; of the industry and service providers; and of the operators – for where there is a collective will, surely there is bound to be a way…

The collective will must drive the need to modernise and integrate our public transport network. However, this daunting task needs to have the basic building blocks in place for a successful legacy to be created.

Enhancing public transport must become a priority as part of the national strategy for growth and development, and this has to be framed within broader social, economic, financial, and environmental plans to both stimulate and support the country’s economic development.

Although this article’s contribution to the discourse is by no means a panacea, the following topics are some of the core issues to be navigated for our transition towards a world-class, integrated transport network that would be sustainable, accessible, and affordable.

Planning

Of all the acronyms used in public transport over the years, those relating to integration have perhaps been the most well-worn… We have seen the Integrated Transport Plan (ITP), the Integrated Public Transport Network (IPTN), and the Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP). For each of these there is, by extension, an associated forum or committee. Enough already!

May 2023 not only bring plans that seek to integrate public transport, but more critically, plans that:

• Are aligned between all applicable tiers of government and its departments
• Are approved, realistic, and sustainably designed
• Consolidate and rationalise operations (where applicable)
• Introduce new or additional services where demand drives needs
• Integrate tariffs

Funding

The ongoing funding crisis within public transport must be prioritised. If the widening gap (including projected under-funding of approximately R3,65 billion from the Public Transport Operations Grant for bus contracts) is to be stemmed, a coordinated effort from the Department of Transport (DoT), Treasury, and industry stakeholders is required.

To this end, the journey to transition cannot start without a plan to educate the broader public on the intricacies and challenges surrounding the allocation and spending of public transport funding. Not only will this go a long way to foster buy-in and support for initiatives that transition and grow public transport, but it will also build trust through transparency: with public trust comes public confidence. The broader strategy of inclusive education and communication must transparently cover aspects of:

• The funding model and subsidy elements
• The key policy and legislation
• The macro and micro economic factors that influence and affect the provision of public transport
• The need for fare compliance
• The role of business in promoting public transport from a solution-driven mindset.

Transition

Whilst transition’s hottest topics centre on electric and autonomous vehicles, we need to be cognisant of the impacts of a delayed and/or slow transition versus early adoption.

The transition towards alternative energy vehicles is currently both cost prohibitive and constrained by the availability of infrastructure and resources. Extensive investment is required, but will ultimately become a necessity for an equitable transition.

In our developing economy, the switch to electric public transport systems will by necessity include a huge technological and cultural change. This will require planning and balancing the introduction of new electric vehicles (EVs) with the phasing out of current and older generation vehicles with internal combustion engines. As well as having wide-ranging implications for our energy grid and power infrastructure, this will radically change the entire public transport network and ecosystem, bringing with it some unintended consequences. The focus should therefore encompass mitigation and consideration for:

• Infrastructure and resources (charging infrastructure will pose the biggest immediate and short-term obstacle)
• Addressing workforce challenges through training, reskilling, and upskilling the existing labour workforce
• Procurement policies
• Localisation and job creation

Transformation

Given the challenges emanating from (and somewhat still entrenched in) our historical background, the need to transform our public transport systems and networks in an inclusive and just manner is also one of the biggest hurdles.

A renewed focus on transformation must be inclusive and equitable to ensure the existing barriers to entry are addressed, thus creating opportunities that are both realistic and accessible. To achieve sustainable, long-term transformation, key issues to be addressed are:

• Ownership
• Equity
• Gender and generational mix
• Legacy planning constraints
• Employment equity targets

Technological innovation

There is a growing and fast-paced global trend towards embracing and adopting digitisation and technological innovation. This encompasses a basket of technologies that impact current processes as well as introduce new processes. Added to this are the Covid-19 pandemic-induced changes that forced the industry to look in the mirror and adapt for survival.

The ease of access to, and operability of, digital and AI technologies means that this is no longer a nice-to-have, but rather a combination of competitive advantage and progress.

Key to the technology transformation will be:

• Automation of systems and processes
• Adoption of AI and 5G platforms and systems
• Intelligent transport management systems
• Electronic routing and scheduling, and optimisation

Implementation

All of this cannot and will not be achieved if there is no congruence in the approach. There has to be a coming together of minds, wherein a give-and-take compromise is reached with the big picture in mind. For that, there must be an acknowledgement that the status quo cannot prevail.

The road ahead: 2023 and beyond

Unquestionably, a combination of bold action by captains of the industry and greater political will is required to both attract and leverage new investment in public transport. This will go a long way to reversing the negative attributes of legacies of the past and make up for decades of under-investment in infrastructure. A wait-and-see approach by stakeholders (combined with the status quo) will certainly waste the opportunity for a Damascus moment that creates a lasting legacy.

Notwithstanding all the macro challenges we will face as a country, as we begin our collective journey into 2023 and beyond we should be asking: “Will the ‘potholes’ of challenges be fixed and, more importantly, will we be on the road to Damascus?”

SABOA – together with the industry – hosted a Strategy Review Workshop on 1 and 2 February this year, incorporating all the issues listed above. We saw robust debate at this well-attended event. Read more about the outcomes in the next issue of FOCUS.