Author:chris-hattingh

Beware the signals we send… July 14, 2023 Capital investments, much like water, follow the path of least resistance. CHRIS HATTINGH warns that if policies and legislation make bureaucratic processes unnecessarily difficult, capital will likely try to find other avenues. Should a country adopt policies that discourage the formation of capital from both local and foreign sources, it will likely experience lower levels of investments in things such as infrastructure and new business formation. The downstream consequence of this is […]

South Africa’s ports: a significant barrier to trade June 7, 2023 The numbers are in and they do not look pretty. South Africa’s ports plumb the depths of the World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s 2022 Container Port Performance Index (CPPI), reveals CHRIS HATTINGH. Of the 348 total international ports and facilities ranked on the Index, the Port of Gqeberha (formerly Port Elizabeth) ranked 291st, Durban 341st, and Cape Town 344th. South Africa’s neighbours performed better, with Mozambique’s Beira […]

Global headwinds mean SA must get basics right May 30, 2023 The very basics of trade infrastructure need to function correctly if South Africa and indeed the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are to succeed, says CHRIS HATTINGH. In addressing the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) business forum in Cape Town in April this year, Deputy President Paul Mashatile hit the nail on the head: “The quality of much of the continent’s maritime, road, and railway infrastructure is […]

Growth requires adoption of speedy reforms April 11, 2023 While South Africa finds itself in a perilous position right now, all is not lost. Growth is possible – but only with speedy reforms, writes CHRIS HATTINGH. According to the African Rail Industry Association, Transnet is anticipated to have moved between 155 and 160 million tonnes in the financial year ending 31 March 2023. In 2018, 226 million tonnes were moved. The 2023 figure, therefore, represents a decline of more than […]

Transnet plans are likely to run out of steam March 13, 2023 South Africa’s perennially underperforming railways and ports are acting as a constant barrier inhibiting the country’s growth potential. This can have dire consequences, warns CHRIS HATTINGH. The unreliability of rail also forces businesses to use road freight, with the accompanying higher fuel costs and security risks. At the end of January this year, Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) issued a request for qualification (RFQ), with the intended ‘product’ on […]

Global trade at risk February 16, 2023 Across most of the world, prosperity has increased, and standards of living and access to more consumer goods have been improved. Many people have been extricated from time-consuming manual labour. But these advances are at risk of being severely diminished – possibly even lost – warns CHRIS HATTINGH. After the disruption caused by Covid-19 and associated government lockdowns, some governments are now being tempted to erect trade barriers in the form of higher […]

National shipping company won’t fix basic trade flaws January 19, 2023 Is a national shipping company good or bad news for the South African economy and trade in general? CHRIS HATTINGH has his doubts about whether it can be a positive development… It is highly unlikely that a national shipping company (which would be run by government) will solve the many problems that plague the South African trade space. While such a company could be established to attempt to compete […]

Recession warning for 2023 December 2, 2022 A recession could be looming, but it’s possible to ride this wave and emerge relatively unscathed, says CHRIS HATTINGH. In early November one of the world’s biggest shipping companies, Maersk, issued a statement projecting that global container demand will decline by as much as 4% this year. Maersk’s fortunes effectively act as a bellwether for global trade and, by extension, global economic activity; the company accounts for about one-sixth of global container trade. […]

Gloomy outlook for global trade October 31, 2022 The outlook for trade both globally and, indeed, within South Africa is gloomy. Under these circumstances, government needs to take action, starting with lowering barriers to trade, says CHRIS HATTINGH. In a report released in October this year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) indicated it expects trade growth in 2023 to fall to 1%, compared with the previous forecast of 3.4%. Meanwhile, 2021 saw 9.7% growth in global trade.  The WTO highlighted […]

Can emerging market governments weather global pressures? September 13, 2022 This is a very troubling time for emerging markets, thanks to factors such as the strength of the US dollar, writes CHRIS HATTINGH. Along with their own debt repayments (and the interest thereon) taking an upward trend, emerging market governments are under escalating pressure from the increasing strength of the US dollar. Many of these governments have been unable to provide support and stimulus comparable to developed economies; calls are […]