2025: expansion, hope, and the new

Whether you believe in any of this year’s predictions does not matter; they may still influence the choices and decisions we make as we seek to carve our destiny, writes SHARMINI NAIDOO. 

Mathematically, 2025 is a perfect square, as 45 x 45 = 2,025. Perfect square years are rare occurrences that carry deep spiritual and cosmic significance, and previous examples like 1936, 1849, 1600, and 1225 saw lots of social and political change, the rise of new leaders, and a general shift in power and ideals.

A year hanging in the balance

In numerology, the year 2025 is a “nine year” (because 2+0+2+5 = 9). Nine is the number of completions and endings. “It will be a year when the structure of society will start to change. Leaders that are not self-serving, but have vision, compassion and integrity are ready to step forward,” writes spiritual teacher and author Diana Cooper. “All the systems that are currently breaking down will start shifting into a new dynamic. 2025 will be a year of expansion, hope and the NEW!”

However, Ian Bremmer, global risk consultant, is not as positive. He has predicted a “uniquely dangerous” time for the planet, akin to the tense 1930s or the start of the Cold War. Bremmer is of the view that humanity should fasten its seatbelts for a very bumpy ride in 2025, mainly due to the rise of unchecked artificial intelligence, Russia’s imperial ambitions, President Trump’s return to the White House and the revived trade war with China, and geopolitical instability driven by a lack of global leadership in what he calls the “G-Zero world” – where no single power or group of nations has an agreed roadmap for peace and security.

On the financial front, the United Nations announced that global GDP will only grow by 2.8% in 2025, after it resisted battering by conflicts and inflation last year. Many CEOs also foresee 2025 as a year of growth; Ernst and Young’s Global CEO Confidence Index finds widespread consensus that economic conditions and growth potential will be positive over the next 12 months. 

Closer to home, many of our business leaders also believe that the domestic economy is on the road to recovery. According to the Daily Maverick, the economy is expected to grow by 1.5 to 3%, the cost of living is likely to ease for long-suffering consumers and businesses, and pro-growth and investment reforms are expected to continue under the government of national unity (GNU). Economists have also expressed great optimism, but have nevertheless warned that this could be scuppered by international and geopolitical events.

“2025 offers South Africa great opportunities and risks. To further build credibility and strengthen investor confidence in 2025, the stamp of authentic leadership must run like a thread through future GNU Cabinet decisions,” says Professor Raymond Parsons, special policy advisor to Business Unity South Africa (BUSA). “External influences will still require to be skilfully navigated, but SA’s future economic performance hinges on mainly domestic policy decisions that maintain a macro environment that is ultimately efficient, stable, and consistent for investment and job-rich growth.”

As we emerge from a very difficult 2024, it is not easy for the bus industry to be so optimistic, as we are already seeing signs to the contrary, and the year concluded with last minute publications of a few pieces of legislation that will severely affect the industry.

The Employment Equity Act

President Ramaphosa proclaimed the effective date of the amendments to the Employment Equity Act (EEA) as 1 January. This may assist smaller employers with fewer than 50 employees, but it poses a major problem to larger employers.

The most significant amendments relate to the Minister of Employment and Labour’s power to set sector-specific employment equity targets against which designated employers will be held to account. A fresh set of regulations will have to be published setting out the sector-specific employment targets, as these powers were not included in the draft regulations. 

The department is in the process of setting up consultative sessions with various sectors. These targets – which need to be tied to demographic based numeric goals for management and skilled levels of the workforce – will have a significant impact on the bus industry and we await our consultation date.

The definition of “people with disabilities” has also been amended to include people with long-term or recurring intellectual or sensory impairment which, in interaction with various barriers, may substantially limit their prospects of entry into, or advancement in, employment. The detail criteria have not been published. There will also be an overlap between EEA and B-BBEE. Although compliance is separate from B-BBEE, it will influence scoring.

Companies Act Amendments

Certain sections of the Companies Amendment Act and the entirety of the Companies Second Amendment Act are now in force, with effect from 27 December 2024. Also now in effect are significant changes to the rules for share buybacks, employee share ownership plans (ESOPs), business rescue processes, amending of a company’s Memorandum of Incorporation (MOI), and changes to the limit for filing a court application to declare a director delinquent or under probation, and for holding directors accountable for damages or losses resulting from breaches of fiduciary duties.

National Road Traffic Act Bill

On 2 December, the president signed the National Road Traffic Amendment Bill, 2020 into law. The legislation is intended to improve road safety and to ensure the integrity of South Africa’s traffic management systems. This includes the fitness of drivers and vehicles, the transportation of certain dangerous goods, the general speed limit, and the integrity of the issuing of vehicle and driver’s licences.

The legislation amends the National Road Traffic Act (NRTA) of 1996 with the following provisions:

• Suspension and cancellation of registration allows for the suspension or cancellation of the registration of examiners for driving licences or vehicles.

• Regulation of centres and stakeholders mandates the registration and grading of driving licence testing centres and training centres. It requires the registration and inspection of various stakeholders involved in manufacturing, supplying, and fitting number plates, weighbridge facilities, and microdots.

• The law introduces various new offences related to learner’s licences and provides for registration and grading of driving schools and their instructors. It includes fraud as a listed offence for assisting a driving licence applicant in committing violations.

• Financial disqualification for officials: The law disqualifies vehicle examiners with direct or indirect financial interests in businesses such as manufacturing, selling, repairing, or modifying motor vehicles. 

• Disciplinary measures: Examiners, traffic officers, and licence inspectors may face suspension or deregistration for convictions under the Criminal Procedure Act. 

• Registration requirements: The law further calls for the registration of persons who build or modify vehicle bodies on chassis and chassis-cabs, or import new buses or midibuses. 

• Emergency services: The Bill obliges emergency services to immediately respond to a road incident and render all necessary services as prescribed.

The Amendments are not yet in force and the president must publish a proclamation to implement the amendments. Several of the provisions also require regulations that have not yet been finalised. 

Draft Second National Land Transport Regulations (DSNLTR)

On 29 November 2004, the Department of Transport (DoT) published the DSNLTR. Significant proposed changes that will impact the industry include:

• Regulations on contracting for public transport services and the definition of an affected operator, which could prejudice existing operators currently contracted on negotiated contracts.

• Regulations regarding Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plans (CITPs), allowing contracting authorities to act without the relevant plans being in place.

• Determination of affected operators and offers (not necessarily reasonable) to operators, or discussions of alternative services, shares, or loan accounts in the operating company.

• A negotiated contract may be concluded once only (a contracting authority may not conclude more than one negotiated contract. This is contrary to the Act, which permits multiple negotiated contracts).

• Under the requirement of tenders, the unintended consequence of having prior State contracts is deemed an unfair advantage. 

• Regulations on the conversion of permits and indefinite period operating licences required by the Act. SABOA is of the view that this section is unlawful and unconstitutional. It poses a serious concern, given the different practices across the provinces, and has the potential for a much bigger problem, especially for operators who have given up their indefinite permits. 

Incorporation of SANS Standards and UNECE Regulations in the NRTA Regulations, 2000

The DoT also intends to incorporate a list of SANS standards in the NRTA regulations to ensure that local standards are in line with international standards and that locally manufactured motor vehicles are of the same standard with those destined for international markets. Operators are advised to take note of these changes.

Draft Public Transport Subsidy Policy

The draft Public Transport Subsidy Policy is being reviewed at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC), a forum for consultation and collaboration between government, organised labour, business, and community organisations on socio-economic issues and policy
formation. NEDLAC provides an opportunity for stakeholders to comment on draft Bills and propose amendments. 

Representatives of SABOA are part of the task team representing business through BUSA. We have had a few engagements to date, which have unfortunately not yielded the hoped-for outcomes. Bilateral talks between the DoT and BUSA, facilitated by NEDLAC, take place in January (after going to print).

Pending legal action on Gauteng Negotiated Contracts

On 13 December 2024, the Gauteng Department of Roads and Transport (GDRT) filed a motion in the High Court to set aside the contracts that were negotiated in June 2023 with the subsidised bus operators in Gauteng and to allow the GDRT to pay no more than the subsidy budget allocation in terms of the Public Transport Operating Grant (PTOG) subsidies.

The GDRT has urged the Court to declare the contracts constitutionally invalid, irregular, and unlawful; it has further requested an order to be able to issue a fresh invitation for competitive bids for the rendering of subsidised bus transport services in Gauteng. Operators wishing to oppose this application had to file their applications by 20 December.

This application was in response to the GDRT’s decision to implement a temporary reduction of services of up to 50% for some of the operators (due to a lack of funding), which was successfully interdicted. The interdicts were granted pending arbitration proceedings that prevented the GDRT from reducing the number of negotiated scheduled kilometres and temporarily reducing the services and monthly subsidies payable.

The GDRT also published a tender last year for the potential replacement operators to step in to take over contracted services from existing negotiated contract operators on short notice. 

A court ruling from 27 December 2024, in the matter of Zeal Health Innovations (Pty) Ltd v Minister of Defence and Military Veterans and Another (967/2023) [2024] ZASCA 183, is reflective of the current reality with government contracts and may have a bearing on the negotiated contracts case. An appeal was made by Zeal Health, as the department failed to pay them for providing services due to insufficient funds. The Courts were obliged to rule that the contract was unlawful and unconstitutional due to the Public Finance Management Act (PFMA), which prevents any accounting officer from committing a department, trading entity, or constitutional institution to any liability for which money has not been appropriated. The Courts did not, however, set aside the contract – and ruled that Zeal was entitled to payment of services rendered.  

We await the outcome of the GDRT application, which will be heard in January after going to print.

Order from chaos?

German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche postulated that even in times of great disorder there is a potential for structure and stability to emerge, suggesting that periods of chaos can eventually lead to positive change and a new sense of order. With all that is currently afoot in the bus industry, we can only hope that “out of the chaos comes order”, and that the current challenges and disruptions do indeed pave the way for growth and improvement of the industry.